'Zelensky Has More Cards Than Trump'
- 4.03.2025, 14:51
Push came to shove.
US President Donald Trump suspended military assistance to Ukraine after a tense conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
How will this affect the AFU, which areas may be affected? The Charter97.org website talked about the situation with the Ukrainian defence observer of the Information Resistance Group, Oleksandr Kovalenko:
— Let's just say that in the short and even medium term, it will not have any global influence on the armed forces of Ukraine in the combat zone for one simple reason — today the Russian occupation forces are so exhausted that it is difficult for them to conduct offensive operations now.
For example, in 2023, when the US Congress blocked aid to Ukraine for six months, we did not have a collapse of the front or a defense breakthrough. And this is taking into account that the Russian troops began their long-playing offensive, and then they had a completely different potential. They could afford numerous mechanized rolls, they could afford to advance 24 by 7.
Now the situation is completely different: the Russians have a shortage of equipment, they lack combat means, they use civilian transport for assault operations. The Russians have switched to horse-drawn transport, it says a lot.
Influence can be exerted on the rear part, logistics, on the same Patriot air defence systems, and on the supply of missiles from the United States.
It is not known what our stockpiles of these missiles are, but if they are depleted, it will be difficult to protect the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, from ballistic weapons strikes, since Patriot is now the main system for countering ballistics. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T system can serve as an analogue, but it was not produced in such a quantity, and the production of missiles for them is not so intense.
Therefore, the problem in the short term may arise not so much for the Defence Forces of Ukraine as in the rear part.
— Can Europe fully replace this assistance if it strengthens its support?
— No, it will not be able to fully replace this support. It will be necessary to seek and build partnerships with other countries that are ready to help Ukraine. We are already in contact with those who are ready to help, but this direction will need to be intensified.
Europe will not be able to fully compensate for the required volume, since it already has a certain amount of obligations that helps Ukraine. And this volume is just within the limits of its capabilities, the generalized defence industry.
Of course, they will not be able to 100% compensate for it, but they can increase it by 10-15%, possibly up to 20%. Not immediately, but they can. This is possible, but it will not be possible to completely replace US assistance. Therefore, here we are talking about attracting other countries, for example, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, in different areas, including humanitarian ones. We need to diversify and increase the level of military and technical cooperation, then it will be possible, and Europe alone will not be enough.
— Should Kyiv wait for the return of this aid or should it concentrate on its own strength?
— In the future, US aid may return, I have no doubt that it will happen. It was the same in 2024, when the Republicans unlocked aid after a six-month block without achieving anything in relation to the Democrats.
Now the situation is very similar — Trump is trying to put pressure on Zelensky, and so the aid was blocked again. Trump is stepping on the same rake using the same style, so I wouldn't be surprised if help is unlocked, but it takes time. Time will tell, firstly, that the Republicans will begin to lose the support of voters, their rating will fall, so they will be forced to do something.
The pressure will grow on Trump himself, and the deal on rare earth metals is critical for him. For Trump, resolving the war in Ukraine is a secondary, even a tertiary task, he is not interested in it. He wants to get rid of all this as quickly as possible and get a deal, because the main task of Trump's second term is an economic war with China.
He seeks to dominate China and drive it out of key markets in which he sees the US presence as a hegemon. This is the same Greenland or the Panama Canal.
Actually, in this economic war, it is important for Trump to diversify the supply of rare earth metals necessary for the American economy. He will not win the economic war with China if he loses the supply of these resources to American companies. Ukraine is the only country that has agreed to supply these resources to the United States on equal terms, to give access to these resources.
So it turns out an interesting tie, which is who will break before. Trump said in the Oval Office that Zelensky does not have cards in his hands, but Zelensky has much more than Trump. Trump cannot start what he came up with in his second term — an economic war with China — without Ukraine. Ukraine will not agree to any deals with the United States without certain guarantees and confidence that it will not be abandoned again. In this case, we see how the scythe found on the stone.